Thursday, January 17, 2008

South Carolina....The GOP race

It's shaping up as a major battle ground....

There have been a small bundle of different polls released recently , all showing pretty much the same results. However, considering what the polls told us in New Hampshire, let's take this with a grain of salt.

But it seems that John McCain is the front-runner on the Republican side with a comfortable lead over Mike Huckabee coming in second. Most of the polls have Mitt Romney in third -- getting no bounce from his Michigan win -- and Fred Thompson a close fourth -- and beating Romney in at least one poll.

Suppose the polls are accurate -- whose the biggest loser here? Huckabee.

He's the southerner and there is a sizeable Christian pool of voters to draw from. To lose to McCain given those advantages would be a major blow to him. (Plus he hasn't impressed anyone since his Iowa victory -- inclouding voters in New Hampshire or Michigan.)

One of Huckabee's big problems in South Carolina is Thompson, who appears to be pulllng votes away from him.

If Thompson can eke out a third place finish, I think he might hang around for Florida. If he finishes fourth, I think he's gone.

Romney stays in it, no matter what. He has no expectations of doing well in South Carolina so a third or even fourth place finish won't mean anything to him.

I think McCain is in the best position...although a win is what he really needs. But finishing second to surging Huckabee in the closing days can be justified and not a campaign killer.

It's Huckabee who might be in trouble here.


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