Monday, February 04, 2008

What to look for Tuesday....

For what it's worth, here are the key states to look at tomorrow to get a real sense of how well things are going for the two Democratic presidential contenders.

Connecticut is important. As is neighboring Massachusetts. It has long been believed that Hillary Clinton controlled the northeast, and she will likely do very well in New York and New Jersey. The question is, can Obama increase his momentum by making a strong showing in the northeast -- Hillary's backyard of Connecticut and Massachusetts. A win in either state (or both) for Obama sends a strong message. A close second place finish will likely result in the delegates from both states being evenly divided -- and that's a plus for Obama as well.

California is obviously the most important contest Tuesday. It is again expected that Clinton will win. An Obama victory would be a major setback for Clinton. But also remember, there are 53 congressional districts in California, and three delegates will be selected from each district. (The remaining 11 state delegates will be divided based on the ovall statewide results.) If Obama wins only half of the state's congressional districts, and does well in the other half, the two candidates will again split the delegation.

The real telling point, in my opinion, will be the results our of Missouri. It's a toss-up state, neither candidate having an advantage over the other. I think the winner of Missouri is the one who will ultimately end up being the party's nominee.

For what it's worth...


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