Obama on the move....
Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is certainly enjoying the month of February as he sweeps the primary and caucus battles scheduled this month. That's not very surprising....he was suppose to do well this month. The question now is, can he capitalize on this momentum and carrying it into March where Clinton is expected to do as good - particularly in Ohio and Texas on March 4.
If Obama can stage an upset in either one of those two states, this race finally comes to an end. If not, the seesaw battle of delegates wages on to Pennsylvania in late April -- where Clinton once again would appear to have the edge.
There's been a lot of talk lately about the role of the super Delegates in the process. Yesterday I had the opportunity to talk to two of the uncommitted Super Delegates -- our own 2nd District Congressman Joe Courtney and Illinois Congress Rahm Emanuel. They have an interesting take on that. But that is the subject of my Hackett on Politics column this coming Sunday, so I'm afraid I'll have to make you wait until then to read that.
If Obama can stage an upset in either one of those two states, this race finally comes to an end. If not, the seesaw battle of delegates wages on to Pennsylvania in late April -- where Clinton once again would appear to have the edge.
There's been a lot of talk lately about the role of the super Delegates in the process. Yesterday I had the opportunity to talk to two of the uncommitted Super Delegates -- our own 2nd District Congressman Joe Courtney and Illinois Congress Rahm Emanuel. They have an interesting take on that. But that is the subject of my Hackett on Politics column this coming Sunday, so I'm afraid I'll have to make you wait until then to read that.
posted by Ray Hackett at 3:25 PM
4 Comments:
A week ago, you were saying that whoever won in Missouri would be the nominee... then that "the remaining 24 state contests are, for the most part, going to be as close with both sides continuing to pick up delegates on a fairly equal basis."
Now, Obama was "suppose to do well this month?" In Washington? Maine? Virginia? Really?
That's moving the goalposts, and it's disingenuous. We count of journalists to serve as our institutional memory, not rewrite the historical record whenever they're proven wrong by the course of events.
Minmatt...Going into the Feb. 5 contests, I suggested that Missouri could be a deciding contest since neither Clinton nor Obama had any particular advantage. It was a state to watch, and could prove to be a telling point in determining who would ultimaltely win the nomination.
I may very well have suggested at that time the remaining races would llikely be close with both sides picking delegates fairly easily.
However, last week, based on polling information that I was reading, it became clear that Obama was surging -- and it appeared to me that he could very sweep the Febraury contests -- all of which seemed to be setting up to favor him. And so far he has, while Clinton is now focusing on the March contests in Ohio and Texas -- which seem to favor her.
So...if he continues his surge, and pulls off the upset in either of those states, then yes...I think the race is over at that point.
As for moving the goal post -- I readily admit that this is not an easy campaign to handicap. It's like nothing any of us have ever seen...and I doubt we'll see anything like this again in a long, long time.
But I've been wrong before.
Predicting the outcome of political races, especially presidential races between two highly qualified candidates, is some what like weather forecasting and economic forcasting. The forecast changes when the weather changes, the political forecast changes when the polls and the actual voting changes. Only the economy is harder. So - We all expected that FEB 5 would be the deciding day, but the voters had a different idea. Clinton came out slightly ahead due to wins in the larger states but not far enough. Now, Obama has caught up because the Clinton campaign did not sufficiently organize in the smaller caucus states that have followed. With that momentum, and some personal campaigning, Obama caught up and went slightly ahead in Potomac (or Chesapeake) Tuesday. Next week, he is expected to extend his lead. Mow March 4 is the deciding Tuesday, until it is not. This has been a great primary season in the Democratic party. Can the Clinton campaign recover in Ohio and Texas?Will Obama inspiration overcome Clinton persperation? Oh, what will the super delegates do if it is a dead heat after the last primary? Keep on reporting RAY, and keep on speculating. The last answer is generally the correct answer unless it isn't
One of the long standing standard answers when asked about political campaigns is...
That's what I think today. Ask me again next week, I might have a different answer than.
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