Monday, January 21, 2008

A review of the weekend primaries....

The Nevada and South Carolina caucus and primary were interesting, buty very little was settled in terms of deciding the Republican and Democratic nomination process.

Clinton won Nevada -- and yet Obama got more delegates than she in finishing second. Granted, he only got one more delegate than Clinton, but still it shows this is still a race up for grabs. (Let's remember that Clinton won New Hampshire, but both left the state with nine delegates each.)

Clinton currently leads Obama in the delegate count up to this point, 236 to 136. But...the big winner so far is "None of the above." There are 327 uncommitted delegates assigned already. Most of them are probably the Super Delegates -- congressional members and party officials -- who have not yet declared support for anyone.

A victory in South Carolina is important for Clinton and obama from a "momentum' standpoint, but not likely to make a big difference in how they stand in terms of locking up the nomination. (Although obama probably needs the win a bit more than Clinton does at the moment.) The Feb. 5 Super Duper Tuesday contest will be far more telling.

John Edwards has just 50 delegates -- and desperately needs a victory in South Carolina this weekend. So far, it's not looking good for him -- and the only real question left is how long does he stay in the race.

On the Republican side, John McCain won the South Carolina primary, and is now considered the front-runner in the GOP race. And yet, in terms of delegates awarded, he is in third place with just 36 delegates. Mike Huckabee, who put up a good fight in South Carolina, is second with 40 delegates -- and Mitt Romney, thaks to wins in Michigan and Nevada, is leading the delegate race with 59.

Which means Florida is a critical state for all the GOP contenders. There were be more delegates awarded in Florida than the total number of delegates already awarded. Plus...Florida becomes the first state where all the top contenders are putting up a fight. Up until this point, it's been limited skirmishes between two and three candidates in isolated battles.

Giuliani has bypassed the early states and has no delegates to his credit.

And Fred Thompson, who was probably responsible for mcCain's win in South Carolina -- taking votes away from Huckabee -- has three delegates.


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