Looking towards November...
A few thoughts about the upcoming November elections and things to look for to try and gauge how it all may unfold.
In the U.S. Senate race, incumbent U.S. Sen. Joseph Lieberman is going have to prove - and prove quickly - that he still has the ability to raise money. Running now as an independent candidate, Lieberman will have to establish that his candidacy remains viable without the backing of the Democratic institutional support.The three-term incumbent will need to rely heavily on television advertising in reaching out to voters across the state, and that will require money.
Democratic nominee Ned Lamont will also need to establish his candidacy among a new group of voters who may not be as convinced as harden Democrats that the time for change is now. Now having the support of top Democrats is nice, but Lieberman had that support as well - and it didn't help him in the primary.Unaffiliated voters and Republicans - and there are certainly many as displeased with President Bush's policies as the most ardent Democrats - may not, however, be as thrilled with a hard line partisan stance that Lamont used so effectively in winning the Democratic Party.
Republican Alan Schlesinger probably needs to establish his candidacy's credibility even more so. Bill Jenkins , who has contributed often to this blog, is of the opinion that Schlesinger's gambling issue isn't much of an issue and will have no bearing on his candidacy. I'd suggest that with two Republican Congressmen - Rob Simmons and Chris Shays - throwing their support behind a Lieberman independend candidacy , the Republican governor and state party chairman attempting to convince him to withdraw, and the President's spokesman saying flat out he won't get any support from the White House - Mr. Schlesinger desperately needs to establish his candidacy as viable.
Technically, it's a three-way (four if you count the Green Party candidate) race. In reality, right now it's a rematch between Lieberman and Lamont.
On the gubernatorial front, you got to ask yourself what's up with the Democratic ticket. Voters give New Haven Mayor John DeStefano a narrow victory over Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy for the top spot, but then turn around and give Malloy's running mate Mary Glassman a convincing victory for the number two spot. With all due respect to Glassman and Scott Slifka (DeStefano's choice for Lt. Governor), I'm guessing most voters knew little if anything about either candidate. So it might safe to assume that some voters simply decided to "have a little fun," just to see what might happen.
The DeStefano camp has to consider that maybe voters haven't yet taken this race seriously. And going up against a very popular incumbent with very high approval ratings, that has to be a concern.
As for the governor, she needs to come out strong as the focus now shifts towards her. DeStefano is going to make a strong argument that things are simply not going well here in the state, and someone needs to be held accountable. Given that there are 84 days remaining in this election cycle, there is more than enough time to hammer home that point. Gas prices are high, winter heating costs are going to be higher, more layoffs are coming at Electric Boat, and property taxes went up again in virtually every community. Come November, it is possible voters could turn out at the polls with a sense of wanting to hold someone accountable.
And on the congressional front, the state's three Republican incumbents should be very concerned about the mood of voters. The Democratic primary battle for U.S. Senate clearly sent a message that Democrats at least are not happy with the current direction the country is going. For incumbent U.S. Rep. Rob Simmons, R-2nd District, that should be of particular concern since he represents one of the most Democratic congressional districts of any Republican in the country. And as noted above, there are also enough unaffiliated and Republican voters displeased with the current state of affairs that this could be a very tough fight for him.
But then again, 84 days in an election cycle is a lifetime. The following opinions are subject to change as we go on.
In the U.S. Senate race, incumbent U.S. Sen. Joseph Lieberman is going have to prove - and prove quickly - that he still has the ability to raise money. Running now as an independent candidate, Lieberman will have to establish that his candidacy remains viable without the backing of the Democratic institutional support.The three-term incumbent will need to rely heavily on television advertising in reaching out to voters across the state, and that will require money.
Democratic nominee Ned Lamont will also need to establish his candidacy among a new group of voters who may not be as convinced as harden Democrats that the time for change is now. Now having the support of top Democrats is nice, but Lieberman had that support as well - and it didn't help him in the primary.Unaffiliated voters and Republicans - and there are certainly many as displeased with President Bush's policies as the most ardent Democrats - may not, however, be as thrilled with a hard line partisan stance that Lamont used so effectively in winning the Democratic Party.
Republican Alan Schlesinger probably needs to establish his candidacy's credibility even more so. Bill Jenkins , who has contributed often to this blog, is of the opinion that Schlesinger's gambling issue isn't much of an issue and will have no bearing on his candidacy. I'd suggest that with two Republican Congressmen - Rob Simmons and Chris Shays - throwing their support behind a Lieberman independend candidacy , the Republican governor and state party chairman attempting to convince him to withdraw, and the President's spokesman saying flat out he won't get any support from the White House - Mr. Schlesinger desperately needs to establish his candidacy as viable.
Technically, it's a three-way (four if you count the Green Party candidate) race. In reality, right now it's a rematch between Lieberman and Lamont.
On the gubernatorial front, you got to ask yourself what's up with the Democratic ticket. Voters give New Haven Mayor John DeStefano a narrow victory over Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy for the top spot, but then turn around and give Malloy's running mate Mary Glassman a convincing victory for the number two spot. With all due respect to Glassman and Scott Slifka (DeStefano's choice for Lt. Governor), I'm guessing most voters knew little if anything about either candidate. So it might safe to assume that some voters simply decided to "have a little fun," just to see what might happen.
The DeStefano camp has to consider that maybe voters haven't yet taken this race seriously. And going up against a very popular incumbent with very high approval ratings, that has to be a concern.
As for the governor, she needs to come out strong as the focus now shifts towards her. DeStefano is going to make a strong argument that things are simply not going well here in the state, and someone needs to be held accountable. Given that there are 84 days remaining in this election cycle, there is more than enough time to hammer home that point. Gas prices are high, winter heating costs are going to be higher, more layoffs are coming at Electric Boat, and property taxes went up again in virtually every community. Come November, it is possible voters could turn out at the polls with a sense of wanting to hold someone accountable.
And on the congressional front, the state's three Republican incumbents should be very concerned about the mood of voters. The Democratic primary battle for U.S. Senate clearly sent a message that Democrats at least are not happy with the current direction the country is going. For incumbent U.S. Rep. Rob Simmons, R-2nd District, that should be of particular concern since he represents one of the most Democratic congressional districts of any Republican in the country. And as noted above, there are also enough unaffiliated and Republican voters displeased with the current state of affairs that this could be a very tough fight for him.
But then again, 84 days in an election cycle is a lifetime. The following opinions are subject to change as we go on.
posted by Ray Hackett at 9:24 AM
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