Polling...
The latest Quinnipiac University poll is out, and it isn't looking good for three-term incumbent U.S. Sen. Joseph Lieberman. Lieberman now trails Democratic primary challenger Ned Lamont by 13 points, 54-41 percent. What is even more telling is that 85 percent of those polled - likely Democratic primary voters - say theire minds are made up.
I've said all along that this race is going to be decided by turnout. Convention wisdom says that between 20-25 percent of the eligible voters will actually vote Tuesday. But this race is anything but conventional. Given the strong, passionate feelings people have in regards to this race, you have to believe the turnout is going to be larger. How large? Nobody knows and I couldn't even begin to venture a guess. What we do know, based on conventional thinking, is that those who do feel strongly that the time has come for a change are coming out in big numbers. Will Lieberman be able to turnout an equally sizeable number to counter that remains to be seen.
The Q-poll also has some good news for Democratic guberantorial candidate Dan Malloy. Malloy has closed the gap in his bid against John DeStefano, now trailing DeStefano 48-38 percent. That race is still too close to call.
I've said all along that this race is going to be decided by turnout. Convention wisdom says that between 20-25 percent of the eligible voters will actually vote Tuesday. But this race is anything but conventional. Given the strong, passionate feelings people have in regards to this race, you have to believe the turnout is going to be larger. How large? Nobody knows and I couldn't even begin to venture a guess. What we do know, based on conventional thinking, is that those who do feel strongly that the time has come for a change are coming out in big numbers. Will Lieberman be able to turnout an equally sizeable number to counter that remains to be seen.
The Q-poll also has some good news for Democratic guberantorial candidate Dan Malloy. Malloy has closed the gap in his bid against John DeStefano, now trailing DeStefano 48-38 percent. That race is still too close to call.
posted by Ray Hackett at 9:35 AM
2 Comments:
Rayconscience - a primary is a very different kind of animal than a general election - and a 10 point lead may look good on paper, but not necessary mean that the race is moving in that particular direction at all. Primaires are determined by turnout - not how many people answer the phone and a surveyor's questions.
snorwich - I'm sorry you feel that way. But you are entitled to your opinion - just as the newspaper is entitled to its. That's one of the reasons why there is an "opinion page" in every newspaper - everyday.
I wonder if a blog like this is a good idea for a journalist. It seems that you are being sucked into the poltics Ray.
If I were running your newspaper, I would never allow it.
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