More from the pundits....
The political "experts" are being asked what are the key races to watch Tuesday to get a sense of how the night will go in terms of control of the U.S. House of Representatives. (Democrats need to pick up 15 seats to win back the control they lost in 1994). Here are a couple of thoughts that might prove interesting for us here in Connecticut.
John Zogby, highly-respected pollster, is picking as "bellweather" states the House races in New York's 26th District, Illinois' 6th District and Connecticut's 2nd District (Simmons/Courtney).
"If Democrats win, then it's curtains for the Republicans."
David Johnson, founder and CEO of Strategic Vision, picked all three Connecticut House races as key among a dozen or so to watch.
"If Republicans can hold on to two of the three in Connecticut, and two of the three in Florida, it means that the losses may not be as great as feared - although control of the House could still go to the Democrats."
And someone I know who knows a bit about the 2nd Congressional District - Norwich lawyer Glenn Carberry who twice ran for the seat (1988 and 1992) as a Republican challenger.
"(Republican) pollster Neil Newhouse has been polling the 2nd District for more than 25 years. Back in 1988, eight days out from the election, he told me exactlyby how much of a percentage I was going to lose. He was dead right," Carberry said recently.
Over the years, I've talked with Newhouse. He told me in 1994 that former Congressman Sam Gejdenson was in for the fight of his life. Gejdenson emerged the victor on Election Night that year by 4 votes over Ed Munster. In 2000, Newhouse told me Gejdenson was finally going down. He did, losing to Simmons by 1-percent.
Newhouse, who is the Simmons campaign pollster, is the only pollster thus far this year giving the incumbent the edge by a margin larger than the margin of error. (His most recent internal poll shows Simmons up 50-43 over Courtney.)
John Zogby, highly-respected pollster, is picking as "bellweather" states the House races in New York's 26th District, Illinois' 6th District and Connecticut's 2nd District (Simmons/Courtney).
"If Democrats win, then it's curtains for the Republicans."
David Johnson, founder and CEO of Strategic Vision, picked all three Connecticut House races as key among a dozen or so to watch.
"If Republicans can hold on to two of the three in Connecticut, and two of the three in Florida, it means that the losses may not be as great as feared - although control of the House could still go to the Democrats."
And someone I know who knows a bit about the 2nd Congressional District - Norwich lawyer Glenn Carberry who twice ran for the seat (1988 and 1992) as a Republican challenger.
"(Republican) pollster Neil Newhouse has been polling the 2nd District for more than 25 years. Back in 1988, eight days out from the election, he told me exactlyby how much of a percentage I was going to lose. He was dead right," Carberry said recently.
Over the years, I've talked with Newhouse. He told me in 1994 that former Congressman Sam Gejdenson was in for the fight of his life. Gejdenson emerged the victor on Election Night that year by 4 votes over Ed Munster. In 2000, Newhouse told me Gejdenson was finally going down. He did, losing to Simmons by 1-percent.
Newhouse, who is the Simmons campaign pollster, is the only pollster thus far this year giving the incumbent the edge by a margin larger than the margin of error. (His most recent internal poll shows Simmons up 50-43 over Courtney.)
posted by Ray Hackett at 11:05 AM
4 Comments:
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I've been saying all along Simmons will not lose. I also do not think that Shays or Johnson will lose either. MANY of the so-called "polls" consider too much the unaffiliated when they poll. Turnout among the unaffiliated is considerably lower than those registered with a party.
In 2002 and 2004, UCONN and Quinnipiac kept insisting the 2nd Congressional District was a "deat heat" and Simmons won by 8 points in each of those races. He will win by 8 points again, 54% to 46%.
Like I said...polls are interesting only in the sense they provide ome sense of people's mood.
But Newhouse is one pollster who seems to be break from the mold...and I would never rule out anything he says.
That’s a story you boys in the news room missed.
All those polls were wrong. By a lot. Simmons cleaned their clocks but the spin is always that the Simmons race is “tight”.
8 percent is a landslide by 2nd District standards.
It’s like the poll takers are trying to create a self fulfilling prophecy only to be made fools of by actual voters on Election Day.
--Which is the only poll that counts.
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