Bubbling under the surface...
The congressional races. It would appear that the races in Connecticut's 2nd, 4th and 5th Congressional districts are about to take off - and take off in a big way. These are going to be extremely hard fought campaigns, as witnessed early with the media campaign that incumbent Congresswoman Nancy Johnson and her Democratic challenger Chris Murphy have already launched.
There is this feeling among Democrats that this is the year that will allow them to take back control of the House, and these three races are being touted as key contests in achieving that goal. Expect both sides to leave nothing on the sidelines. Consider this:
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has reportedly purchased $20 million worth of television time in 11 congressional districts - including the Hartford/New Haven media market where they can all three of Connecticut's races.
A generic poll conducted by the New York Times and CBS News shows voter dissatisfaction with the Republican controlled Congress is at an all-time low. A mere 28 percent approve of the way Congress is doing the job - that's lower than President Bush's approval ratings which now sit around 36 percent nationally - and considerably lower here in Connecticut.
Displeasure with the Iraq War is growing as witnessed around these parts by the U.S. Senate Democratic primary, and a Ned Lamont victory in less than two weeks will signal that it is an issue that incumbents- especially Republican House members - will have to deal with in November.
And this little item. Rep. Jack Murtha of Pennsylyvania is hitting the road to campaign for Democratic candidates. Murtha, of course, is the respected House Democrat who sparked the fight over the Iraq issue, calling for an immediate withdrawal of troops - and then being soundly criticized by those who opposed that position. According to the Washington, DC-based magazine The Hill, Murtha will campaign in 41 districts. Whether Connecticut will be one is not yet none. But don't be surprised if he shows up. Why does a Murtha visit make news? Murtha is the face of the anti-war movement. And his decision to go out and campaign is something new for him. He didn't campaign for a single House Democrat in 2004. And this year, he's doing 41?
There is this feeling among Democrats that this is the year that will allow them to take back control of the House, and these three races are being touted as key contests in achieving that goal. Expect both sides to leave nothing on the sidelines. Consider this:
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has reportedly purchased $20 million worth of television time in 11 congressional districts - including the Hartford/New Haven media market where they can all three of Connecticut's races.
A generic poll conducted by the New York Times and CBS News shows voter dissatisfaction with the Republican controlled Congress is at an all-time low. A mere 28 percent approve of the way Congress is doing the job - that's lower than President Bush's approval ratings which now sit around 36 percent nationally - and considerably lower here in Connecticut.
Displeasure with the Iraq War is growing as witnessed around these parts by the U.S. Senate Democratic primary, and a Ned Lamont victory in less than two weeks will signal that it is an issue that incumbents- especially Republican House members - will have to deal with in November.
And this little item. Rep. Jack Murtha of Pennsylyvania is hitting the road to campaign for Democratic candidates. Murtha, of course, is the respected House Democrat who sparked the fight over the Iraq issue, calling for an immediate withdrawal of troops - and then being soundly criticized by those who opposed that position. According to the Washington, DC-based magazine The Hill, Murtha will campaign in 41 districts. Whether Connecticut will be one is not yet none. But don't be surprised if he shows up. Why does a Murtha visit make news? Murtha is the face of the anti-war movement. And his decision to go out and campaign is something new for him. He didn't campaign for a single House Democrat in 2004. And this year, he's doing 41?
posted by Ray Hackett at 9:06 AM
5 Comments:
An update...
National Public Radio did a survey of voters in the top 50 most competitive congressional races, and could find only 27 percent of those who responded saying they would definitely or probably vote for the incumbent - and 47 percent saying they would definitely or probably vote for the challenger.
In 40 of those 50 congressional districts - including Connecticut's 2nd, 4th and 5th - Republicans are the incumbents.
I've been hearing ever since 1994 that the Republicans will "Lose Congress this year" and it hasn't happened. I predict that Shays, Johnson and Simmons will be reelected and that the Republicans will still control Congress after this year's elections.
Bill
There is absolutely no question that incumbents have a major advantage in getting re-elected. But somehow this year just 'feels' different. Voters are certainly paying more attention to what's going on earlier in the election season that I've seen in a very long time. There is this sense of anger out there. People are not happy - and whether or not that unhappiness is reflected in November is still to be determined. I do believe that what's happens in next's Democratic Senate primary will give us a clearer view of how the rest of this campaign season will shape up. I wouldn't take anything for granted at this point.
Bill is correct. There isn't likly to be any change in the CT's US House Representation. Simmons certainly looks an easy win. He saved the sub base. The last two election he knocked the Democrat nominee's 'you know what' in the dirt with 8 percent each. 8 percent is not a close win.
Simmons should win easily no matter how much money the democrats throw at him.
I'm not ready yet to give up on the idea that this year's elections are different...and I'm not sure how any of it is going to ultimately play out. I still believe that the outcome of Tuesday's primary is going to be a benchmark from which we'll have a better sense of how the other races may shake out.
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