Polls...
The latest Rasmussen Report poll shows Ned Lamont continuing to gain in his bid to oust three-term incumbent Sen. Joseph Lieberman - in both the Aug. 8 Democratic primary and in a three-way race with Lieberman as the indepedent candidate.
According to the poll, Lamont now holds a 10-percentage point lead (51-41) over Lieberman among likely primary voters - and the two are in a statistical dead heat in a three way contest, each garnering 40 percent of the voters.
There is one footnote to this, however. The poll for the Democratic primary is a very small sampling, a subset of a larger sampling of 1,000 voters. The primary numbers are based on only 286 registered Democrats who said they were likely to vote on Aug. 8.
Conventional wisdom is that between 20 and 25 percent of the eligible registered Democrats will turn out to vote on Aug. 8. But this race has been anything but conventional. I find it a bit hard to believe that given the amount of publicity - locally as well as nationally and internationally , that only one in four registered Democrats will vote. I think there may be enough interest being generated in this contest that we could see a larger turnout. Even the folks at Rasmussen acknowledge that it is nearly impossible to determine how many will actually vote in a primary.
On the Democratic gubernatorial contest - sometimes now known as that "other" race - Republican incumbent Gov. M. Jodi Rell maintains a comfortable 20-plus point advantage over both Democratic challengers. Rell leads endorsed Democrat Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy 56-31, and leads New Haven Mayor John DeStefano 54-32. One of the more distrubing signs for either Democrat is that Rell is enjoying support among 35 percent of Democrats in both match-ups.
According to the poll, Lamont now holds a 10-percentage point lead (51-41) over Lieberman among likely primary voters - and the two are in a statistical dead heat in a three way contest, each garnering 40 percent of the voters.
There is one footnote to this, however. The poll for the Democratic primary is a very small sampling, a subset of a larger sampling of 1,000 voters. The primary numbers are based on only 286 registered Democrats who said they were likely to vote on Aug. 8.
Conventional wisdom is that between 20 and 25 percent of the eligible registered Democrats will turn out to vote on Aug. 8. But this race has been anything but conventional. I find it a bit hard to believe that given the amount of publicity - locally as well as nationally and internationally , that only one in four registered Democrats will vote. I think there may be enough interest being generated in this contest that we could see a larger turnout. Even the folks at Rasmussen acknowledge that it is nearly impossible to determine how many will actually vote in a primary.
On the Democratic gubernatorial contest - sometimes now known as that "other" race - Republican incumbent Gov. M. Jodi Rell maintains a comfortable 20-plus point advantage over both Democratic challengers. Rell leads endorsed Democrat Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy 56-31, and leads New Haven Mayor John DeStefano 54-32. One of the more distrubing signs for either Democrat is that Rell is enjoying support among 35 percent of Democrats in both match-ups.
posted by Ray Hackett at 3:06 PM
2 Comments:
There is no question that the Democratic nominee will have his work cut out for him in the November election. And both John DeStefano and Dan Malloy know that. The biggest problem they'll face is the same one they're dealing with now - getting noticed. The Senate race that has dominated the primaries isn't going away aftr Aug. 8, the congressional races will be hard fought campaigns - and unfortunately on the nasty side - and the state legislative candidates will be jockeying for media attention as well.
Having said that, there's still three and a half months to go - and a week during a campaign can be a lifetime. The governor's approval ratings are strong. But if gas prices continue to climb and we continue to lose jobs (the biggest of the EB layoffs is scheduled to come in the fall, just before the election), the anger that is out there, I believe, is going to be redirected at incumbents- all incumbents.
The governor has the advantage today, but talk to me in another month. (But don't wait that long to add more thoughts to this blog. Thanks for writing.)
Rell's weakness is in her base.
Her ship could sink real fast.
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